Fixing the Auto Industry, the Economy, the Atmosphere and All That …and Making a Profit … One Car At a Time
Recent American data on the economy is dismal news. On June 16, 2009 the US Federal Reserve reported:
“…Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in May after having fallen a downward-revised 0.7 percent in April. The average decrease in industrial production during the first three months of the year was 1.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 1.0 percent in May with broad-based declines across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines dropped 2.1 percent, and the output of utilities fell 1.4 percent. At 95.8 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial output in May was 13.4 percent below its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined further in May to 68.3 percent, a level 12.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.”
On an entirely different spectrum recent news out of Copenhagen on climate change isn’t very optimistic either. An urgently updated status report by the International Scientific Congress entitled Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions states that:
“…Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts…”
People are having a tough time keeping jobs, making mortgage payments, putting food on the table and putting fuel in the gas tank Governments and political leaders are facing similar tough challenges meeting social objectives and keeping peace order and good government. Current carbon dioxide concentration is about 394 ppm, compared to pre 1750 levels of 280 ppm, and are increasing.
On the sunnier side of the street a new report from the University of Michigan Transport Institute titled “Fixing Detroit, How Far How Fast How Fuel efficient?” models profitability of the Big 3 auto manufactures assuming fuel economy improvements of 30% to 50%. The study identifies the critical components of successful industry turnarounds and the model results are very promising and encouraging.
In 2009 the CST published its research findings about driving behaviour and feedback systems. The study participants overwhelmingly identified fuel cost and fuel economy as the most important information influencing their driving behaviour. The least significant factor was greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions.
The "reader’s digest" version of this long story is that if North America can do the things necessary to turn the automobile manufacturing sector around and produce more fuel efficient vehicles a ride of prosperity will follow. People will probably buy these fuel efficient cars. The Federal Reserve data will show growth instead of decline, more people will be employed; mortgage payments will be met, etc. And with improved fuel economy, tailpipe emissions decrease. Take this scenario to the highest and best technology possible, electrification of transportation systems can reduce carbon emission by a factor of 80%. This all adds up to saving the planet - one car at a time.
By Terry Zdan
“…Industrial production decreased 1.1 percent in May after having fallen a downward-revised 0.7 percent in April. The average decrease in industrial production during the first three months of the year was 1.6 percent. Manufacturing output moved down 1.0 percent in May with broad-based declines across industries. Outside of manufacturing, the output of mines dropped 2.1 percent, and the output of utilities fell 1.4 percent. At 95.8 percent of its 2002 average, overall industrial output in May was 13.4 percent below its year-earlier level. The rate of capacity utilization for total industry declined further in May to 68.3 percent, a level 12.6 percentage points below its average for 1972-2008. Prior to the current recession, the low over the history of this series, which begins in 1967, was 70.9 percent in December 1982.”
On an entirely different spectrum recent news out of Copenhagen on climate change isn’t very optimistic either. An urgently updated status report by the International Scientific Congress entitled Climate Change: Global Risks, Challenges & Decisions states that:
“…Recent observations show that greenhouse gas emissions and many aspects of the climate are changing near the upper boundary of the IPCC range of projections. Many key climate indicators are already moving beyond the patterns of natural variability within which contemporary society and economy have developed and thrived. These indicators include global mean surface temperature, sea-level rise, global ocean temperature, Arctic sea ice extent, ocean acidification, and extreme climatic events. With unabated emissions, many trends in climate will likely accelerate, leading to an increasing risk of abrupt or irreversible climatic shifts…”
People are having a tough time keeping jobs, making mortgage payments, putting food on the table and putting fuel in the gas tank Governments and political leaders are facing similar tough challenges meeting social objectives and keeping peace order and good government. Current carbon dioxide concentration is about 394 ppm, compared to pre 1750 levels of 280 ppm, and are increasing.
On the sunnier side of the street a new report from the University of Michigan Transport Institute titled “Fixing Detroit, How Far How Fast How Fuel efficient?” models profitability of the Big 3 auto manufactures assuming fuel economy improvements of 30% to 50%. The study identifies the critical components of successful industry turnarounds and the model results are very promising and encouraging.
In 2009 the CST published its research findings about driving behaviour and feedback systems. The study participants overwhelmingly identified fuel cost and fuel economy as the most important information influencing their driving behaviour. The least significant factor was greenhouse gas tailpipe emissions.
The "reader’s digest" version of this long story is that if North America can do the things necessary to turn the automobile manufacturing sector around and produce more fuel efficient vehicles a ride of prosperity will follow. People will probably buy these fuel efficient cars. The Federal Reserve data will show growth instead of decline, more people will be employed; mortgage payments will be met, etc. And with improved fuel economy, tailpipe emissions decrease. Take this scenario to the highest and best technology possible, electrification of transportation systems can reduce carbon emission by a factor of 80%. This all adds up to saving the planet - one car at a time.
By Terry Zdan
Labels: climate change, ecomomy, electrification, fuel efficiency
posted by The Centre for Sustainable Transportation at
11:43 AM
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